One area where the traditional auto industry lacks skills is software, and much of the new technology that will go in cars is first being developed outside the automotive world, in particular by digital companies. The next decade likely will bring radical change to the automotive industry. This drop will be largely driven by macroeconomic factors and the rise of new mobility services such as car sharing and e-hailing. Across those segments, consumer preferences, policy and regulation, and the availability and price of new business models will strongly diverge. Electrified. Consumers today use their cars as all-purpose vehicles. This article appeared in the Q1 2016 issue of Automotive Megatrends Magazine. Dense areas with a large, established vehicle base are fertile ground for these new mobility services, and many cities and suburbs of Europe and North America fit this profile. In 2030, the share of electrified vehicles could range from 10 percent to 50 percent of new-vehicle sales. Consumers today use their cars as all-purpose vehicles. Millennials aren’t the only ones turning to the internet for help: roughly eight in ten … For example, the market for a car specifically built for e-hailing services – that is, a car designed for high utilisation, robustness, additional mileage, and passenger comfort – would already be millions of units today, and this is just the beginning. What are your ambitions in the automotive industry between now and 2030? Detlev Mohr is a Director McKinsey’s Stuttgart office and EMEA Automotive Practice Leader, Dominik Wee is a Principal in McKinsey’s Munich Office and Timo Möller is a Senior Expert in McKinsey’s Cologne office. Stricter emission regulations, lower battery costs, more widely available charging infrastructure, and increasing consumer acceptance will create strong momentum for electrified vehicles (hybrid, plug-in, battery electric, and fuel cell) in the coming years. Reshape the value proposition. Across those segments, consumer preferences, policy and regulation, and the availability and price of new business models will strongly diverge. For example, only two new players have appeared on the list of the top-15 automotive OEMs in the last 15 years, compared with ten new players in the handset industry. Explore the data and insights from the 11th year of Deloitte’s Global Automotive Consumer Study (fielded in fall 2019) and discover how 35,000 consumers in 20 countries are feeling about autonomy, electric and connected vehicles, ride-sharing, and more. The increasing speed of innovation will require cars to be upgradable. At the same time, it is important to note that electrified vehicles include a large portion of hybrid electrics, which means that even beyond 2030, the internal-combustion engine will remain very relevant. For example, the market for a car specifically built for e-hailing services—that is, a car designed for high utilization, robustness, additional mileage, and passenger comfort—would already be millions of units today, and this is just the beginning. The increasing speed of innovation will require cars to be upgradable. Regulations will drive a gradual diesel phase-out, but uncertainty remains in US, Long range EVs need full vehicle optimisation, COMMENT: How to master the art of digital transformation, Ditching diesel will not happen overnight, say truckmakers, Do not discount diesel’s green trucking potential. Changing consumer preferences, tightening regulation, and technological breakthroughs add up to a fundamental shift in individual mobility behaviour. With battery costs potentially decreasing to $150 to $200 per kilowatt-hour over the next decade, electrified vehicles will achieve cost competitiveness with conventional vehicles, creating the most significant catalyst for market penetration. Despite a shift toward shared mobility, vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but likely at a lower annual rate of about 2%. New business models could expand automotive revenue pools by about 30%, adding up to US$1.5tr. Incumbent players will be forced to compete simultaneously on multiple fronts and cooperate with competitors. 1. With the growing demand for capturing real-time information by vehicle users and operators, the demand for IoT in the automotive industry is expended to witness a steep rise during the forecast period (2020–2030).” The global autonomous vehicle market demand is estimated to be at approximately 6.7 thousand units in 2020 and is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of 63.1% from 2021 to 2030. Unsubscribe anytime. Changing consumer preferences, tightening regulation, and technological breakthroughs add up to a fundamental shift in individual mobility behavior. While other industries, such as telecommunications, have already been disrupted, the automotive industry has seen very little change and consolidation so far. Drive transformational change: With innovation and product value increasingly defined by software, OEMs need to align their skills and processes to address new challenges like software-enabled consumer value definition, cyber security, data privacy, and continuous product updates. Philippe Rosier: We foresee production of 200,000 StackPack® by 2030, for use by manufacturers across the entire world, and for many different types of vehicles (heavy commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, etc. Despite a shift toward shared mobility, vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but likely at a lower … Fully autonomous vehicles are unlikely to be commercially available before 2020. Overall global car sales will continue to grow, but the annual growth rate is expected to drop from the 3.6% over the last five years to around 2% by 2030. With innovation and product value increasingly defined by software, OEMs need to align their skills and processes to address new challenges like software-enabled consumer value definition, cybersecurity, data privacy, and continuous product updates. Become part of our autonomous revolution and submit your stories, images and videos, Stay up to speed with our weekly briefing. A study by PMR concludes that, the ANZ automotive battery market will expand at a CAGR of 7 % over the forecast period of 2020 to 2030, and reach a valuation of US$ 1.5 Bn by the end of 2030. Let us help you understand the future of mobility, © Automotive World Ltd. 2020, All Rights Reserved, Eight disruptive trends shaping the auto industry of 2030, By registering for Automotive World email alerts you agree to our. 6 Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030 SOURCE: McKinsey The automotive revenue pool will grow and diversify with new services potentially becoming a ~USD 1.5 trillion market in 2030 Today Traditional automotive revenues Vehicle sales dominant 2.750 4.000 720 1.200 1.500 +30% 30 6,700 4.4% p.a. City type will replace country or region as the most relevant segmentation dimension that determines mobility behaviour. As a result, the traditional business model of car sales will be complemented by a range of diverse, on-demand mobility solutions, especially in dense urban environments. Individuals increasingly use multiple modes of transportation; goods and services are delivered to rather than fetched by consumers. A progressive scenario would see fully autonomous cars accounting for up to 15 percent of passenger vehicles sold worldwide in 2030 (Exhibit 3). Through continuous improvements in battery technology and cost, those local differences will become less pronounced, and electrified vehicles are expected to gain more and more market share from conventional vehicles. Fifty percent of surveyed automotive executives say that to succeed or even survive, they need to reinvent their organizations with digital technologies. New mobility services may result in a decline of private-vehicle sales, but this is likely to be offset by increased sales in shared vehicles that need to be replaced more often due to higher utilization and related wear and tear. Follow this link to download the full issue. Regarding technological readiness, tech players and start-ups will likely also play an important role in the development of autonomous vehicles. Our forecasts suggest that by 2030, more than one in three kilometres driven could already involve sharing concepts. Traditional automotive players will feel the squeeze, likely leading to shifting market positions in the evolving automotive and mobility industries, potentially leading to consolidation or new forms of partnerships among incumbent players. 7. The industry is transforming from competition among peers toward new competitive interactions, but also partnerships and open, scalable ecosystems. Safer, connected driving and the wealth of innovations that are bringing this to reality may sound like they are great things for the automotive industry. By contrast, in rural areas private-car usage will remain the preferred means of transport. DESPITE A SHIFT TOWARD SHARED MOBILITY, VEHICLE UNIT SALES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW, … The market introduction of ADAS has shown that the primary challenges impeding faster market penetration are pricing, consumer understanding, and safety/security issues. The type of city will thus become the key indicator for mobility behaviour, replacing the traditional regional perspective on the mobility market. Traditional automotive players will feel the squeeze, likely leading to shifting market positions in the evolving automotive and mobility industries, potentially leading to consolidation or new forms of partnerships among incumbent players. 8. This could be because of the expected increase of shared vehicles on the road lessening the total amount owned by consumers. Expected inventory decrease by country by 2030: Europe 25% decrease, United States 22% decrease, and China 50% decrease. 55% of all new car sales in Europe may be fully electrified by 2030. Electrified vehicles are becoming viable and competitive; however, the speed of their adoption will vary strongly at the local level. 5. 2. ). The automotive revenue pool will significantly increase and diversify toward on-demand mobility services and data-driven services. Four key trends will shift markets and revenue pools, change mobility behavior, and build new avenues for competition and cooperation. Many more new players are likely to enter the market. This would mean that more than 30 percent of miles driven in new cars sold could be from shared mobility. The global automotive industry is undergoing a cascade of disruptions that will reshape it in unexpected ways, and India will be no exception to this. And 42 percent have a high sense of urgency.… Shared mobility. Global automotive cybersecurity market will reach $10.92 billion by 2030, growing by 17.3% annually over 2020-2030 owing to the rising need … Electrified vehicles are becoming viable and competitive; however, the speed of their adoption will vary strongly at the local level. With battery costs potentially decreasing to US$150 to US$200 per kilowatt-hour over the next decade, electrified vehicles will achieve cost competitiveness with conventional vehicles, creating the most significant catalyst for market penetration. Vehicle inventory on the roads is expected to decrease significantly according to PwC. Adoption rates will be highest in developed dense cities with strict emission regulations and consumer incentives (tax breaks, special parking and driving privileges, discounted electricity pricing, et cetera). three – the structure of the automotive industry in 2030 Technology advances and increasingly varied demand will mean that automakers themselves develop less and less of what they produce. In 2030, the share of electrified vehicles could range from 10% to 50% of new-vehicle sales. This could create up to US$1.5tr, or 30% more, in additional revenue potential in 2030, compared with about US$5.2tr from traditional car sales and aftermarket products/services, up by 50% from about US$3.5tr in 2015 (Exhibit 1). Connectivity, and later autonomous technology, will increasingly allow the car to become a platform for drivers and passengers to use their time in transit to consume novel forms of media and services or dedicate the freed-up time to other personal activities. Many more new players are likely to enter the market. The report covers the present ground scenario and the future growth prospects of the Germany automotive industry for 2017-2030 along with the total sales of automobiles in the country and international markets, and the total revenue from aftermarkets, service providers, and automotive components industry. Once technological and regulatory issues have been resolved, up to 15% of new cars sold in 2030 could be fully autonomous. Regulation and consumer acceptance may represent additional hurdles for autonomous vehicles. Electrification. With established markets slowing in growth, however, growth will continue to rely on emerging economies, particularly China, while product-mix differences will explain different development of revenues. 6. Meanwhile, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) will play a crucial role in preparing regulators, consumers, and corporations for the medium-term reality of cars taking over control from drivers. The type of city will thus become the key indicator for mobility behavior, replacing the traditional regional perspective on the mobility market. Usage Based Insurance for Vehicles. (Photo: Faraday Future), New business models could expand automotive revenue pools by about 30 percent, adding up to $1.5 trillion, Vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but likely at a lower rate, Rise of a market for carsharing and fit-for-purpose mobility solution, City type will replace country or region as the most relevant segmentation dimension that  determines mobility behavior, Once technological and regulatory issues have been resolved, up to 15 percent of new cars sold in 2030 could be fully autonomous. The automotive seat cover market was valued at US$ 5.1 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach US$ 8.3 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 4.5% through 2030. Hence, up to one out of ten new cars sold in 2030 may likely be a shared vehicle, which could reduce sales of private-use vehicles. Future of Mobility Outlook 2030: How Mobility Trends Affect Value Added by Automotive Suppliers 31.10.2018 Editor: Alexander Stark In the future, there will be more technically sophisticated cars on Germany's roads that will open up new sales opportunities for the supplier industry — because added value could rise around € 14 billion by 2030. The automotive industry is going through an important development phase to address major issues concerning users and the environment. Leverage partnerships. Fully autonomous vehicles are unlikely to be commercially available before 2020. Our global EV forecast is for a compound annual growth rate of 29 per cent achieved over the next ten years: Total EV sales growing from 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million in 2025, then reaching 31.1 million by 2030. As a result, the traditional business model of car sales will be complemented by a range of diverse, on-demand mobility solutions, especially in dense urban environments. Most industry players and experts agree that these four trends will reinforce one another, and that the automotive industry is ripe for disruption. Success in 2030 will require automotive players to shift to a continuous process of anticipating new market trends, exploring alternatives and complements to the traditional business model, and exploring new mobility business models and their economic and consumer viability. Press Release Automotive Seat Cover Market - Global Market Share, Trends, Analysis and Forecasts, 2020-2030 Published: Nov. 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. In the future, they may want the flexibility to choose the best solution for a specific purpose, on demand and via their smartphones. Most industry players and experts agree that these four trends will reinforce one another, and that the automotive industry is ready for disruption. The foreseeable trends of social personas suggest that autonomous and shared mobility will increase greatly by 2030. However, once these challenges are addressed, autonomous vehicles will offer tremendous value for consumers. Ride-hailing apps like Uber, Lyft and Bolt are incredibly popular but are a relatively … To get ahead of the inevitable disruption, incumbent players need to implement a four-pronged strategic approach: Prepare for uncertainty. However, once these challenges are addressed, autonomous vehicles will offer tremendous value for consumers. Meanwhile, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) will play a crucial role in preparing regulators, consumers, and corporations for the medium-term reality of cars taking over control from drivers. Consumers’ new habit of using tailored solutions for each purpose will lead to new segments of specialized vehicles designed for very specific needs. Drive transformational change. Understanding where future business opportunities lie requires a more granular view of mobility markets: by city types based primarily on their population density, economic development, and prosperity. The remaining driver of growth in global car sales is the positive macroeconomic development, including the rise of the global consumer middle class. The automotive sector is … This would mean that more than 30% of miles driven in new cars sold could be from shared mobility. Stricter emission regulations, lower battery costs, more widely available charging infrastructure, and increasing consumer acceptance will create strong momentum for electrified vehicles (hybrid, plug-in, battery electric, and fuel cell) in the coming years. Automotive incumbents cannot predict the future of the industry with certainty. For example, only two new players have appeared on the list of the top-15 automotive original-equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the last 15 years, compared with ten new players in the handset industry. The NMMA Statistics and Research department provides members and industry stakeholders with the latest boating industry forecasts, market data, research and trends. Online Research. A progressive scenario would see fully autonomous cars accounting for up to 15% of passenger vehicles sold worldwide in 2030 (Exhibit 2). Enjoy autonomous driving content direct to your inbox, Follow us on our social networks for up to date information and thoughts on automated driving. New market entrants are expected to target attractive segments and activities along the value chain before potentially exploring further fields. Hence up to one out of ten new cars sold in 2030 may likely be a shared vehicle, which could reduce sales of private-use vehicles. Regulation and consumer acceptance may represent additional hurdles for autonomous vehicles. There will be rapid R&D … On this platform different views and opinions are welcome. Follow this link to download the full issue. This is one of the latest technologies in the automotive industry. Consumer mobility behaviour is changing, leading to up to one in ten cars sold in 2030 potentially being a shared vehicle and the subsequent rise of a market for fit-for-purpose mobility solutions. In the future, they may want the flexibility to choose the best solution for a specific purpose, on demand and via their smartphones. The world is gradually … Diverging markets will open opportunities for new players, which will initially focus on a few selected steps along the value chain and target only specific, economically attractive market segments – and then expand from there. While Tesla, Google, and Apple currently generate significant interest, we believe that they represent just the tip of the iceberg. The car industry will need to prepare for uncertainty. The Germany … Therefore, articles and posts do not necessarily reflect the view of Continental. Automotive incumbents cannot predict the future of the industry with certainty. Overall global car sales will continue to grow, but the annual growth rate is expected to drop from the 3.6 percent over the last five years to around 2 percent by 2030. But a PwC report found the Bill of Material (BOM) for car manufacturers will increase by 44% by 2030. 3,500 USD billions New automotive revenues, 2030 Hyundai receives four Automotive Best Buy awards from Consumer® Guide, Continental Structural Plastics perfects carbon fiber RTM process, launches production programs, LADA increased sales results in November 2020, Siemens Energy and Porsche, with partners, advance climate-neutral e-fuel development, Velodyne Lidar’s Velabit™ wins prestigious Best of What’s New award from Popular Science, Sogefi diesel expertise on the best-selling light commercial vehicles, Scania: Swedish haulier Wobbes utilises the full power of the V8, Christian Friedl becomes new Director of the SEAT plant in Martorell, Manolito Vujicic appointed new Head of Porsche Division India. To get ahead of the inevitable disruption, incumbent players need to implement a four-pronged strategic approach: Prepare for uncertainty: Success in 2030 will require automotive players to shift to a continuous process of anticipating new market trends, exploring alternatives and options that complement the traditional business model, and exploring new mobility business models and their economic and consumer viability. Automotive will be no exception. New market entrants are expected to target attractive segments and activities along the value chain before potentially exploring further fields. The Internet of Things (IoT) has led to a wave of connectivity … These forces are giving rise to four disruptive technology-driven trends in the automotive sector: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity. The remaining driver of growth in global car sales is the positive macroeconomic development, including the rise of the global middle class consumer. By 2030, the car market in New York is likely to have much more in common with the market in Shanghai than with that of Kansas. With established markets slowing in growth, however, growth will continue to rely on emerging economies, particularly China, while product-mix differences will explain different development of revenues. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. By contrast, in rural areas private-car usage will remain the preferred means of transport. This could create up to $1.5 trillion—or 30 percent more—in additional revenue potential in 2030, compared with about $5.2 trillion from traditional car sales and aftermarket products/services, up by 50 percent from about $3.5 trillion in 2015 (Exhibit 1). The automotive cybersecurity market reached a value of $7,280.2 million by 2030, increasing from $1,152.7 million in 2019, advancing at an 18.5% CAGR during the … New mobility services may result in a decline of private-vehicle sales, but this is likely to be offset by increased sales in shared vehicles that need to be replaced more often due to higher utilisation and related wear and tear. What automobile industry trends and disruptive technologies might drive the automotive industry in 2020? PUNE, India, Nov. 26, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Global Automotive Seat Cover Market Share, Trends, Analysis and Forecasts, 2020-2030 provides insights on key developments, business strategies, research & development activities, supply chain analysis, competitive landscape, and market composition analysis. Understanding where future business opportunities lie requires a more granular view of mobility markets: By city types based primarily on their population density, economic development, and prosperity. The market introduction of ADAS has shown that the primary challenges impeding faster market penetration are pricing, consumer understanding, and safety/security issues. Dense areas with a large, established vehicle base are fertile ground for these new mobility services, and many cities and suburbs of Europe and North America fit this profile. India Automotive Industry size, sales, share, other stats, Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on India Automotive Industry, Manufacturers, Contract Manufacturers Suppliers and Recovery Strategy and dynamics such as emerging trends, market opportunity, drivers & challenges to market growth have been included in the latest report published by Goldstein Market Intelligence. We calculate, based on mileage, that by 2030, the share of autonomous driving in overall traffic may rise to as much as 40%. Adoption rates will be highest in developed dense cities with strict emission regulations and consumer incentives (tax breaks, special parking and driving privileges, discounted electricity pricing, et cetera). We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. While Tesla, Google, and Apple currently generate significant interest, we believe that they represent just the tip of the iceberg. The speed of adoption will be determined by the interaction of consumer pull (partially driven by total cost of ownership) and regulatory push, which will vary strongly at the regional and local level. At the same time, it is important to note that electrified vehicles include a large portion of hybrid electrics, which means that even beyond 2030, the internal combustion engine will remain very relevant. Through continuous improvements in battery technology and cost, those local differences will become less pronounced, and electrified vehicles are expected to gain more and more market share from conventional vehicles. In megacities such as London, for example, car ownership is already becoming a burden for many, due to congestion fees, a lack of parking, and traffic jams.